UBS O’Connor is betting $4 billion on a revival in the merger-arbitrage market, which has struggled this year due to regulatory challenges. With a third of its portfolio in merger-arb, the firm anticipates a catalyst-rich quarter ahead, driven by the US presidential election and updates on key deals. Despite a slight recovery, merger-arb strategies remain among the weakest in hedge-fund performance, with a 3.5% gain compared to the broader industry’s 8.3%.
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